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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 86

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to DAL 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 40 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model