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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 37

New York Giants 20 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP