Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model