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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
46.7%
NYJ
53.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.145 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.287 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Ankle
Darqueze Dennard CB Doubtful Ankle

NYJ

Bryce Petty QB Out right Shoulder
Darryl Roberts CB Out Foot
Jordan Jenkins LB Doubtful Calf
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Shoulder
David Harris LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 23
–
NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:43 TD NYJ (7:43) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 01:32 FG CIN (1:32) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 11:31 TD CIN (11:31) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 09:44 TD NYJ (9:44) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 87-E.Decker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 03:23 FG NYJ (3:23) 2-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 10 – NYJ 16
  • Q2 00:01 FG CIN (:01) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined. CIN 13 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 03:15 TD CIN (3:15) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 11:29 FG NYJ (11:29) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 20 – NYJ 19
  • Q4 03:25 FG NYJ (3:25) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 20 – NYJ 22
  • Q4 00:58 FG CIN (:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 23 – NYJ 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:42) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 22 for 8 yards (86-J.Wright).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:45) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-M.Hunt), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (1:32) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 22 for 15 yards (58-E.Henderson; 47-K.Davis).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:08) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 76%

    (3:23) 2-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:01) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:07) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 16 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 26-J.Shaw).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (11:29) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

    (9:06) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 97%

    (3:25) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

    (:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.