CIN @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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New York Jets

0-1 HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN

48.2%

NYJ

51.8%

💨 Windy

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

NYJ defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
QB edge to CIN: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.145 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.287 EPA/dropback
CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
CIN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Wind 17 mph
NYJ offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20 13–27

–

NYJ 22 15–29

Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Ankle

Darqueze Dennard CB Doubtful Ankle

NYJ

Bryce Petty QB Out right Shoulder

Darryl Roberts CB Out Foot

Jordan Jenkins LB Doubtful Calf

Bruce Carter LB Questionable Shoulder

David Harris LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 23

–

NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:43 TD NYJ (7:43) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – NYJ 6
Q1 01:32 FG CIN (1:32) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – NYJ 7
Q2 11:31 TD CIN (11:31) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – NYJ 7
Q2 09:44 TD NYJ (9:44) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 87-E.Decker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – NYJ 13
Q2 03:23 FG NYJ (3:23) 2-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 10 – NYJ 16
Q2 00:01 FG CIN (:01) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined. CIN 13 – NYJ 16
Q3 03:15 TD CIN (3:15) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – NYJ 16
Q4 11:29 FG NYJ (11:29) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 20 – NYJ 19
Q4 03:25 FG NYJ (3:25) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CIN 20 – NYJ 22
Q4 00:58 FG CIN (:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 23 – NYJ 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(12:42) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 22 for 8 yards (86-J.Wright).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

(3:45) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-M.Hunt), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

(1:32) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 22 for 15 yards (58-E.Henderson; 47-K.Davis).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(8:08) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 76%

(3:23) 2-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(:01) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(12:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(10:07) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 16 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 26-J.Shaw).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

(11:29) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

(9:06) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 97%

(3:25) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

(:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown →

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