Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model