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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Jets 22

What Actually Happened

(:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.31 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model