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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Jets 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP