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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Jets 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-M.Hunt), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP