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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:01) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model