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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 22 for 8 yards (86-J.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model