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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 6

New York Jets 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.56 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP