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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

BAL
27.1%
CIN
72.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: A.J. McCarron (CIN) +0.118 vs Ryan Mallett (BAL) -0.040 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

BAL

Albert McClellan LB Questionable Ankle
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Elvis Dumervil LB Probable Not Injury Related
Kyle Juszczyk RB Probable Illness

CIN

Ryan Hewitt TE Out Knee
Andy Dalton QB Out right Thumb
Carlos Dunlap DE Probable Hamstring
Tyler Eifert TE Probable Concussion
George Iloka S Probable Groin
Marvin Jones WR Probable Hamstring
AJ McCarron QB Probable left Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:00 FG BAL (13:00) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 05:00 FG BAL (5:00) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 01:56 TD CIN (1:56) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass deep left to 85-T.Eifert for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CIN 7
  • Q3 11:29 TD CIN (11:29) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short right to 18-A.Green for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CIN 13
  • Q3 07:05 TD CIN (7:05) 32-J.Hill left guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CIN 20
  • Q4 04:11 FG CIN (4:11) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 9 – CIN 24
  • Q4 01:51 TD BAL (1:51) 7-R.Mallett pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – CIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:33) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 17 for 2 yards (30-C.Peerman).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:59) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:52) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 22 for 4 yards (46-C.Harris; 81-T.Kroft).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 33%

    (2:00) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 4, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. [Ball batted by 17 J.Butler at the CIN 1; Out of bounds at CIN 4]

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:22) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to CIN 48 for 4 yards (33-R.Burkhead; 81-T.Kroft).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (13:00) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:30) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 35 for 8 yards (30-C.Peerman; 26-J.Shaw).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (5:00) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 54%

    (9:11) (Shotgun) 7-R.Mallett pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Williams.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 54%

    (7:05) 32-J.Hill left guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 28%

    (3:13) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-17-J.Butler. [BAL 41 A.Levine tipped ball to J.Butler]

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:42) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to CIN 49 for -3 yards (30-C.Peerman).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 79%

    (12:02) (Shotgun) 7-R.Mallett pass incomplete deep right to 11-K.Aiken.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:46) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 10 for no gain (37-C.Lewis-Harris). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 10.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:40) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%

    (4:11) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 33%

    (:47) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.