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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to BAL 35 for 8 yards (30-C.Peerman; 26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model