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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 90

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to CIN 48 for 4 yards (33-R.Burkhead; 81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model