Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(8:59) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model