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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-17-J.Butler. [BAL 41 A.Levine tipped ball to J.Butler]

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model