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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(:47) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP