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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 94

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(:42) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Harris. 81-K.Clay to CIN 49 for -3 yards (30-C.Peerman).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 94, worth -5.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 52, worth -3.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model