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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 3 at the 38
Baltimore Ravens 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 14
What Actually Happened
(9:11) (Shotgun) 7-R.Mallett pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Williams.
The Three Options
GO
+0.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.75 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
+0.02 EP
- 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
