CHI @ TB — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith

Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI

39.6%

60.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TB offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Jameis Winston (TB): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
TB on 3 more days rest than CHI
TB defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
CHI defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21

–

TB 25

Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CHI

Alshon Jeffery WR Doubtful Hamstring

Shea McClellin LB Doubtful Concussion

Adrian Amos S Questionable Shoulder

Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Quadricep

Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee

Tracy Porter CB Questionable Ankle

Eddie Royal WR Questionable Knee

TB

Vincent Jackson WR Out Knee

Akeem Spence DT Out Ankle

Kourtnei Brown DE Doubtful Groin

Chris Conte S Doubtful Knee

Logan Mankins G Questionable Knee

Bruce Carter LB Probable Ankle

George Johnson DE Probable Calf

Gerald McCoy DT Probable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 26

–

TB 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:34 TD TB (6:34) 22-D.Martin up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 0 – TB 6
Q2 11:39 TD CHI (11:39) 25-K.Carey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – TB 7
Q2 03:05 FG CHI (3:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – TB 7
Q2 00:12 FG CHI (:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – TB 7
Q3 11:38 TD TB (11:38) (Shotgun) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 34-C.Sims for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – TB 13
Q4 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 25-K.Carey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – TB 14
Q4 09:09 FG CHI (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 23 – TB 14
Q4 01:12 FG CHI (1:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 26 – TB 14
Q4 00:10 TD TB (:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(12:02) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.
Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP

p(convert) 71%

(8:40) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.
Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP

p(convert) 72%

(6:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.George, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by TB-95-H.Jones at CHI 4. 95-H.Jones to CHI 4 for no gain (16-P.O'Donnell).
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 18%

(2:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.
Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(14:57) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 34 yards to CHI 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

(3:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(2:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to CHI 46, Center-48-A.DePaola. 80-M.Mariani to TB 49 for 5 yards (48-A.DePaola).
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP

p(convert) 72%

(9:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 24. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for no gain (31-C.Prosinski; 27-S.McManis). PENALTY on TB-21-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 71%

(2:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at TB 23, and recovers at TB 23. 43-B.Rainey to TB 23 for no gain (52-L.Reynolds).
Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(13:30) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CHI 28, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 66%

(9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 60%

(6:35) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

(1:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.