4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 62

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model