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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 51

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model