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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 34 yards to CHI 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model