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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 21

Chicago Bears 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model