Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Chicago Bears 10

(2:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to CHI 46, Center-48-A.DePaola. 80-M.Mariani to TB 49 for 5 yards (48-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model