4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP