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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 67

Chicago Bears 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to TB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at TB 23, and recovers at TB 23. 43-B.Rainey to TB 23 for no gain (52-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP