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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 20:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NE
52.0%
HOU
48.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NE: Brian Hoyer (HOU) +0.102 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.204 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NE

Julian Edelman WR Out Foot
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Patrick Chung S Questionable Foot
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Hand
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Josh Kline G Questionable Shoulder
Matt Slater WR Questionable Other-Stinger
Marcus Cannon T Probable Toe
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen
Devin McCourty S Probable Shoulder
Michael Williams TE Probable Knee

HOU

J.J. Watt DE Probable Groin
Alfred Blue RB Probable Back
Brandon Brooks G Probable Illness
Duane Brown T Probable Knee
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Hamstring
Christian Covington DT Probable Knee
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Charles James CB Probable Calf
Ben Jones C Probable Hip
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Knee
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Cecil Shorts WR Probable Hamstring
DeAndre Hopkins WR Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
HOU 6

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:28 TD NE (7:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-K.Martin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-J.Watt]. PENALTY on HOU-99-J.Watt, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on HOU-27-Q.Demps, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. NE 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 02:42 FG HOU (2:42) 8-N.Novak 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. NE 7 – HOU 3
  • Q2 12:18 FG NE (12:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – HOU 3
  • Q2 09:30 FG HOU (9:30) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. NE 10 – HOU 6
  • Q2 00:19 TD NE (:19) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – HOU 6
  • Q3 11:52 FG NE (11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – HOU 6
  • Q4 12:08 TD NE (12:08) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – HOU 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to NE 44 for 13 yards (52-B.Peters; 53-M.Bullough). PENALTY on NE-52-E.Martin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:35) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to HOU 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III to HOU 24 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to NE 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to NE 48 for 21 yards (52-B.Peters; 55-B.McKinney).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (2:42) 8-N.Novak 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 85%

    (12:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (9:30) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (4:25) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to HOU 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to NE 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to HOU 41 for 12 yards (45-J.Prosch; 55-B.McKinney).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 75%

    (11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-51-J.Simon at NE 21. HOU-34-A.Bouye was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short middle to 84-R.Griffin (34-L.Johnson) [99-D.Easley].

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:34) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to HOU 39, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:47) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to HOU 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III ran ob at HOU 39 for -2 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to NE 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:49) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to HOU 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III pushed ob at HOU 18 for 13 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 68%

    (9:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer sacked at NE 38 for -4 yards (72-A.Hicks). HOU-7-B.Hoyer was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 66%

    (4:53) 6-R.Allen punts 25 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:23) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.