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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 25

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model