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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 59

New England Patriots 20 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to HOU 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III pushed ob at HOU 18 for 13 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model