Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 89

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 27

(3:23) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.67 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model