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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 65

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to NE 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model