Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 66

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-51-J.Simon at NE 21. HOU-34-A.Bouye was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model