Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 86

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to NE 44 for 13 yards (52-B.Peters; 53-M.Bullough). PENALTY on NE-52-E.Martin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.99 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model