4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 31

New England Patriots 17 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP