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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

PHI
28.6%
NE
71.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.245 vs Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.030 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Sam Bradford in place of Mark Sanchez)
  • NE offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

PHI 20
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Ryan Mathews RB Out Concussion
Jason Peters T Questionable Back
Cedric Thornton DE Questionable Ankle
Nelson Agholor WR Probable Hip
Seyi Ajirotutu WR Probable Calf
Sam Bradford QB Probable left Shoulder
Zach Ertz TE Probable Concussion
Josh Huff WR Probable Concussion
Lane Johnson T Probable Shoulder
Jason Kelce C Probable Knee
Dennis Kelly T Probable Ankle
Walter Thurmond S Probable Hamstring

NE

Julian Edelman WR Out Foot
Rob Gronkowski TE Out Knee
Dominique Easley DT Questionable Ankle
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Patrick Chung S Questionable Foot
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Hand
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Illness
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Michael Williams TE Questionable Knee
Alan Branch DT Probable Elbow
Marcus Cannon T Probable Toe
Scott Chandler TE Probable Knee
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 35
–
NE 28

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 421st career TD pass, 3rd most all-time (Marino, 420). PHI 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 07:53 TD NE (7:53) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 30th TD pass of season, 6th 30+ Pass TD season, 4th most all-time (Favre, P.Manning & Brees). PHI 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 04:10 TD PHI (4:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:15 TD PHI (:15) 6-R.Allen punt is BLOCKED by 42-C.Maragos, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Goode at NE 24. 53-N.Goode for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NE 14
  • Q3 07:42 TD PHI (7:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins (26-W.Thurmond) at PHI 1. 27-M.Jenkins for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NE 14
  • Q3 04:37 TD PHI (4:37) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PHI 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – NE 14
  • Q4 11:14 TD PHI (11:14) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 34 – NE 14
  • Q4 05:33 TD NE (5:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 88-S.Chandler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 35 – NE 20
  • Q4 03:02 TD NE (3:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 35 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:15) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 17 for 1 yard (38-E.Biggers).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:26) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to PHI 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 33 for 14 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on PHI-34-K.Barner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:38) 8-D.Jones punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:44) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 43 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:50) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:49) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NE 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-D.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (53-N.Goode; 42-C.Maragos).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to PHI 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 44 for 6 yards (53-D.Fleming).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 53%

    (1:39) 8-D.Jones punts 26 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:15) 6-R.Allen punt is BLOCKED by 42-C.Maragos, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Goode at NE 24. 53-N.Goode for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:46) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to PHI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:47) 8-D.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-90-M.Smith.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:37) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PHI 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:21) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to PHI 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 34 for 6 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:54) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-D.Johnson to NE 29 for 3 yards (53-N.Goode).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (4:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 28-J.White to PHI 22 for 25 yards (38-E.Biggers).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 82-K.Martin [91-F.Cox]. Penalty on NE-69-S.Mason, Offensive Holding, declined.