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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 93

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 8-D.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-90-M.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 93, worth -5.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model