Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 63

New England Patriots 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

(:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 82-K.Martin [91-F.Cox]. Penalty on NE-69-S.Mason, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -0.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model