4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 60

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to PHI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP