Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

(6:38) 8-D.Jones punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model