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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 8-D.Jones punts 26 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP