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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 47

New England Patriots 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 28-J.White to PHI 22 for 25 yards (38-E.Biggers).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model