Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 62

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(:15) 6-R.Allen punt is BLOCKED by 42-C.Maragos, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Goode at NE 24. 53-N.Goode for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.76 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -1.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model