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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

ARI
71.8%
SF
28.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Blaine Gabbert (SF) +0.116 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.310 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 26
–
SF 19
Projected margin: ARI by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ARI

Cory Redding DT Out Ankle
Frostee Rucker DT Out Ankle
Deone Bucannon S Questionable Concussion
Jonathan Cooper G Questionable Knee
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring
Patrick Peterson CB Questionable Ankle
Ed Stinson DT Questionable Groin
Calais Campbell DT Probable Knee
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Mike Iupati G Probable Neck
Chris Johnson RB Probable Knee
John Brown WR Probable Hamstring

SF

Carlos Hyde RB Out Foot
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Concussion
Anquan Boldin WR Probable Hamstring
Alex Boone G Probable Triceps
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Tony Jerod-Eddie DT Probable Hip
Erik Pears T Probable Knee
Keith Reaser CB Probable Ankle
Arik Armstead DT Probable Shoulder
Jaquiski Tartt S Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 19
–
SF 13

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:04 FG ARI (4:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 12:48 FG ARI (12:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 9-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. ARI 6 – SF 3
  • Q3 10:01 TD ARI (10:01) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – SF 3
  • Q3 07:38 TD SF (7:38) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 4. 4-yds YAC ARI 13 – SF 9
  • Q3 01:33 FG SF (1:33) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. ARI 13 – SF 13
  • Q4 02:35 TD ARI (2:35) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – SF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 51%

    (11:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 1, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-25-J.Ward.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:40) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to SF 38, Center-82-M.Leach. 10-B.Ellington MUFFS catch, touched at SF 38, RECOVERED by ARI-59-A.Fua at SF 39. 59-A.Fua to SF 39 for no gain (56-S.Skov).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%

    (4:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (12:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to ARI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 41 for 15 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 73%

    (8:25) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 31-D.Johnson (35-E.Reid).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:52) 2-D.Butler punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 40%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 24-S.Draughn to ARI 41 for 3 yards (20-D.Bucannon). Caught at ARI 43. 2- yds YAC

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (:04) 9-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (5:46) 2-D.Butler punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (1:33) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:42) 2-D.Butler punts 33 yards to SF 23, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-55-S.Weatherspoon.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 51%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep middle to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 22 for 18 yards (32-T.Mathieu, 26-R.Johnson). Caught at ARI 22. 0-yds YAC