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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 2-D.Butler punts 33 yards to SF 23, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-55-S.Weatherspoon.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model