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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP