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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 24-S.Draughn to ARI 41 for 3 yards (20-D.Bucannon). Caught at ARI 43. 2- yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model