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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 1, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-25-J.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.72 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model