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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to ARI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 41 for 15 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model