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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 19

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep middle to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 22 for 18 yards (32-T.Mathieu, 26-R.Johnson). Caught at ARI 22. 0-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.21 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP